The GCC economies are set to maintain growth momentum despite rising global uncertainty, underpinned by strong non-oil activity, solid domestic demand, and ongoing structural reforms, according to a new analysis.
In its latest regional assessment, the International Monetary Fund said the GCC output is forecast to accelerate to an average 3.3 per cent in 2025, up from 1.7pc in 2024, as members unwind oil-production cuts under the Opec+ agreement.
The projection is broadly aligned with the World Bank’s December outlook, which sees regional growth rising to 3.2pc in 2025 and 4.5pc in 2026.
“The economic outlook remains favourable, but risks are tilted to the downside amid elevated global uncertainty,” the IMF said. Growth will be supported by higher natural-gas output, strong project execution, and policy buffers that allow governments to sustain investment.
External positions are expected to remain “comfortable,” even as current-account surpluses narrow with rising imports. Across the Middle East and North Africa region, growth is expected to accelerate from 2.6pc in 2024 to 3.5pc in 2025 and 3.8pc in 2026.
However, global growth is projected to decelerate slightly from 3.3pc in 2024 to 3.1pc in 2026, reflecting major shifts in international trade policies.
Regarding monetary policy in the region, the IMF said current frameworks – consistent with the currency pegs – have served the GCC well and should be maintained.
“The policy priority is to strengthen monetary policy transmission, including by enhancing liquidity management frameworks and deepening financial markets,” said the report.
The analysis noted that non-hydrocarbon economic activity in the GCC strengthened in 2024, driven by strong domestic demand amid ongoing diversification efforts.
The GCC non-oil economy grew by 3.7pc on average in 2024, attracting significant investment, particularly in countries such as Saudi Arabia.
In the kingdom, non-hydrocarbon investments – including government investments – accounted for 85-90pc of total gross capital formation.
The report said that tourist arrivals in the GCC remain strong in 2025, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Over the medium term, growth in GCC countries will be supported by the strong performance of the non-hydrocarbon economy amid diversification efforts, alongside expanded oil and natural gas production and export capacity.